Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2778 (S18W51, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited decay in the intermediate spots and only produced low-level enhancements. Region 2779 (S18W40, Cai/beta) emerged during the period and produced two C1 flares at 28/1943 and 28/2054 UTC, a C4 flare at 29/1150 UTC, and multiple B-level enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity for 29-31 Oct is expected to be at very low levels, with C-flares likely and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 21,571 pfu observed at 28/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29-31 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged near 500 km/s until ~29/0600 UTC when they began to slowly decrease. Total field strength varied between 2-6 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi was variable throughout the period, with a prolonged excursion in the positive sector from 28/1900-29/0645 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence through the remainder of 29 Oct. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 30-31 Oct.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period, due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period on 29 Oct, and mostly quiet on 30-31 Oct as CH HSS influences wane over the forecast period.
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