Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Mar 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 02-04 Mar.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on 02-04 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced but waning, likely due to residual CME effects. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT, with the Bz component seeing a maximum southward deviation to -6 nT before settling in to average near -2 nT. Solar wind speed decreased to near 360 km/s during the period.
Just after 02/0100 UTC, the Phi angle began to oscillate between sectors, total field increased from a steady 4 nT to nearly 9 nT, and the Bz component began to agitate between -5 nT and 8 nT. Wind speed increased from just over 350 km/s to over 550 km/s by the end of the period. These enhancements indicate the likely onset of the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 02 Mar as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 03 Mar and slowly taper off on 04 Mar. Solar wind speeds are expected to be mostly in the 500-550 km/s range based on recurrent values.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field activity decreased during the first half of the period to mostly quiet levels as influence from the possible transient arrival tapered off. Activity increased to unsettled levels the latter half of the period, with the likely arrival of the negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 02 Mar in response to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 Mar as HSS conditions persist followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 04 Mar.
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