60m Propagation Project

The objective of our 60M Experiment is to evaluate the band as a viable HF communications link between remote communities and larger centres throughout the Northern Canada Auroral Zone.
To accomplish this, we are gathering a team of interested individuals in various locations to beacon, and monitor beacons from other stations throughout the region.
Beacons heard will are spotted to PSK Reporter. The PSK Reporter data is automatically updated our central data base.
Solar weather data will also update our central database every 15 minutes.
Beacons heard, and solar conditions will be displayed graphically on a common time base to allow the data to be analysed. This feature is currently under development.

The graphs will show us beacons heard by any station and the existing solar conditions at any given time.
From this information we are hoping to learn what solar conditions need to exist to support a reasonable communications path, and what conditions will not.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 3 1 1 09-12UT 3 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2778 (S18W51, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited decay in the intermediate spots and only produced low-level enhancements. Region 2779 (S18W40, Cai/beta) emerged during the period and produced two C1 flares at 28/1943 and 28/2054 UTC, a C4 flare at 29/1150 UTC, and multiple B-level enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity for 29-31 Oct is expected to be at very low levels, with C-flares likely and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 21,571 pfu observed at 28/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29-31 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged near 500 km/s until ~29/0600 UTC when they began to slowly decrease. Total field strength varied between 2-6 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi was variable throughout the period, with a prolonged excursion in the positive sector from 28/1900-29/0645 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence through the remainder of 29 Oct. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 30-31 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period, due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period on 29 Oct, and mostly quiet on 30-31 Oct as CH HSS influences wane over the forecast period.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Oct 29 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA303 UGEOA 20401 01029 0330/ 9930/ 10291 20293 30293 99999 UGEOE 20401 01029 0330/ 28/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 01029 0330/ 28/// 10036 20880 3012/ 4///0 50000 61207 74404 80102 90230 99999 UGEOR 20401 01029 0330/ 28/24 29102 12778 20000 30100 44323 50150 60011 34420 04100 12779 20000 30200 43322 50080 60005 33315 03000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 29 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 303 Issued at 0245Z on 29 Oct 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Levels ranged from quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 088 SSN 036 Afr/Ap 009/012 X-ray Background B1.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.7e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.4e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 7.40e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 4 2 3 2 3 3 2 Planetary 2 3 1 3 2 3 4 2 F. Comments: The 2 MeV electron fluence measured at GOES-16 was high.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2778 (S20W44, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in size and magnetic complexity, and continued to produce low-level flare activity. Newly numbered Region 2779 (S15W33, Bxo/beta) emerged during the period and produced two C1 flares at 28/1943 and 28/2054 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class flares, due to the flare potential of Region 2778.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 21,600 pfu observed at 28/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29-31 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged near 500 km/s, total field strength was 5 nT or less, and the Bz component varied between +/- 3 nT. Phi was variable throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence through 29 Oct. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 30 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 29 Oct, and mostly quiet on 30-31 Oct as CH HSS influences wane over the forecast period.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 1 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 29 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 303 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Oct 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2778 S20W44 086 0150 Dai 10 11 Beta-Gamma 2779 S15W33 076 0080 Cai 04 05 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 29 Oct to 31 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 27/2214Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1432Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21570 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Oct 088 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/25/25
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CANCELLED SUMMARY: 10 cm Radio Burst

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 708 Issue Time: 2020 Oct 28 1923 UTC
CANCEL SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Cancel Serial Number: 707 Original Issue Time: 2020 Oct 28 1801 UTC
Comment: Conditions for this summary are no longer present
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
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SUMMARY: 10 cm Radio Burst

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 707 Issue Time: 2020 Oct 28 1801 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2020 Oct 28 1746 UTC Maximum Time: 2020 Oct 28 1747 UTC End Time: 2020 Oct 28 1748 UTC Duration: 2 minutes Peak Flux: 19000 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 82 sfu
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
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