60m Propagation Project

The objective of our 60M Experiment is to evaluate the band as a viable HF communications link between remote communities and larger centres throughout the Northern Canada Auroral Zone.
To accomplish this, we are gathering a team of interested individuals in various locations to beacon, and monitor beacons from other stations throughout the region.
Beacons heard will are spotted to PSK Reporter. The PSK Reporter data is automatically updated our central data base.
Solar weather data will also update our central database every 15 minutes.
Beacons heard, and solar conditions will be displayed graphically on a common time base to allow the data to be analysed. This feature is currently under development.

The graphs will show us beacons heard by any station and the existing solar conditions at any given time.
From this information we are hoping to learn what solar conditions need to exist to support a reasonable communications path, and what conditions will not.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 02/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 605 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Mar 075 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/018-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/30 Minor Storm 20/05/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 50/30/40
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Mar 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 02-Mar 04 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 02-Mar 04 2021
Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 00-03UT 2 4 2 03-06UT 3 3 3 06-09UT 3 3 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 3 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 02 Mar in response to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2021
Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2021
Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Mar 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 02-04 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on 02-04 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced but waning, likely due to residual CME effects. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT, with the Bz component seeing a maximum southward deviation to -6 nT before settling in to average near -2 nT. Solar wind speed decreased to near 360 km/s during the period.
Just after 02/0100 UTC, the Phi angle began to oscillate between sectors, total field increased from a steady 4 nT to nearly 9 nT, and the Bz component began to agitate between -5 nT and 8 nT. Wind speed increased from just over 350 km/s to over 550 km/s by the end of the period. These enhancements indicate the likely onset of the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 02 Mar as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 03 Mar and slowly taper off on 04 Mar. Solar wind speeds are expected to be mostly in the 500-550 km/s range based on recurrent values.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field activity decreased during the first half of the period to mostly quiet levels as influence from the possible transient arrival tapered off. Activity increased to unsettled levels the latter half of the period, with the likely arrival of the negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 02 Mar in response to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 Mar as HSS conditions persist followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 04 Mar.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Mar 02 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA061 UGEOA 20401 10302 0330/ 9930/ 10021 22021 30021 99999 UGEOE 20401 10302 0330/ 01/02 08502 0850/ 08502 9//99 01702 0//// ///// 9//// 13072 1339/ 14152 01599 01202 0//// ///// 92804 99999 UGEOI 20401 10302 0330/ 01/// 10000 20710 3026/ 4///0 50000 64008 74404 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 10302 0330/ 01/24 02100 99999 PLAIN S.I.D.C. BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL PROVISIONAL MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER RI FOR 2021 FEBRUARY IS 8.3 (EIGHT POINT THREE).
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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Mar 02 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 061 Issued at 0245Z on 02 Mar 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0850 0850 0850 170 1307 1339 1415 2804 B1.5 120 B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to moderate storm (G2) levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 016/024 X-ray Background A3.9 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.7e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.4e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.30e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 4 6 4 4 2 2 2 2 Planetary 3 6 4 4 2 2 3 2 F. Comments: None
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Mar 02 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 61 Issued at 0030Z on 02 Mar 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Mar I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z Mar Nmbr Location Lo 2803 N20W73 283 II. Regions Due to Return 02 Mar to 04 Mar Nmbr Lat Lo None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Mar 02 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 02-Mar 04 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 02-Mar 04 2021
Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 00-03UT 2 4 2 03-06UT 3 3 3 06-09UT 5 (G1) 3 2 09-12UT 4 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 3 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 02 Mar due to CIR arrival and subsequent CH HSS onset effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2021
Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2021
Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Mar 02 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 02-04 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on 02-04 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters became enhanced from approximately 28/2300-01/1530 UTC due to possible CME effects. Total field reached a maximum of 14 nT at 01/0328 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -13 nT. Solar wind speed increased briefly to a maximum of 538 km/s at 01/0902 UTC. Phi angle was variable throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced once again on 02 Mar as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 03 Mar and slowly taper off on 04 Mar. Solar wind speeds are expected to be mostly in the 500-550 km/s range based on recurrent values.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels, observed during the 01/0300-0600 synoptic period, in response to sustained periods of southward Bz and a brief solar wind speed increase to 538 km/s. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed during the second half of the UTC day.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 02 Mar in response to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 Mar as HSS conditions persist followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 04 Mar.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 01/0902Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1074 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Mar 071 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 017/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/20 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/30
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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